County News/The Hundred
T20 Blast permutations: What do sides need to qualify in the final week?
The Vitality Blast group stage is heading for a dramatic finish. Find out who has qualified, who can still reach the quarter-finals, and what every county needs to progress.
We have now reached the business end of the Vitality Blast group stages and by Sunday evening, the quarter-final matchups will be locked in.
There is still plenty to play for across the remaining three rounds of action as the those teams still in the hunt aim to keep their hopes of reaching Finals Day on July 18 alive.
So who has already progressed? Who needs what to advance? And which are the potentially decisive fixtures?
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North Group: Notts through, Yorkshire one win away
Despite losing their opening three games, Notts Outlaws have already guaranteed their spot in the quarter-finals for the first time since 2023 after a relentless run of seven straight wins.
Yorkshire, who last made it out of the North group in 2022 and are bidding for maiden T20 silverware, need one more win to join them and face Lancashire Lightning in the Roses clash at Emirates Old Trafford on Friday, in a game the hosts must win by a sizeable margin to remain in contention.
The top two meet in the final game at Headingley which could dictate the group winner and home quarter-final, though both could still earn that reward as the best performing second-placed team.
As for Lancashire, they have spurned two winning positions against Notts and Derbyshire Falcons in their previous two games to severely raise the prospect of a first group stage exit since 2017, though victories over Yorkshire and Durham may be enough to sneak through as a best third-placed if Essex or Somerset do not win all of their remaining games.
It has been another frustrating campaign for Derbyshire Falcons and Leicestershire Foxes, who along with Durham, are all but out of the race on 12 points with three games still to play each.
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Central & West Group: Scramble behind Steelbacks
The strongest and most competitive group in the competition, underlined by the dominant record in the cross-over fixtures which stands at 10 wins from 11, with Somerset still to play Derbyshire tomorrow.
Runaway leaders Northamptonshire Steelbacks were finally beaten last time out at the ninth time of asking, though remain all but certain to finish in top spot and reach the knockout stages for a third successive campaign.
Behind them is where it gets interesting, and also a little complicated, in the race for second.
Gloucestershire’s indifferent form has reeled in the chasing pack but they still remain second ahead of Worcestershire Rapids on NRR, whom they face in a crunch battle at New Road on Friday.
The winner will be strong favourites to finish in the top two, with Gloucestershire hosting Glamorgan and Worcestershire travelling to Somerset in the final round.
However, Glamorgan – who have not made it out of the group stages since 2017 – may have something to say about that if they can beat at least one of Northants and Warwickshire Bears to set up a potential decider at Gloucestershire on Sunday.
Somerset could also still complete a remarkable turnaround with three wins and a NRR swing if neither Gloucestershire and Glamorgan claim maximum points.
Knockout regulars Warwickshire Bears are unable to finish in the top two and need to win both of their games to maintain the slimmest of hopes of a best third-placed spot.
The team in third-placed will be guaranteed to progress if Lancashire fail to win both of their remaining games, though there is an unlucky scenario in which a side could finish on 28 points in fourth and not make it through.
South Group: Surrey and Essex battle for second
Lancashire and Derbyshire’s tie on Monday meant South group leaders Hampshire Hawks will be in the quarter-finals as a minimum best third-placed side.
The 2025 runners-up hold a two-win cushion over second-placed Surrey though, with just one more win from their three remaining games to confirm a top two finish and likely home quarter-final.
Surrey secured a crucial victory over Essex at Chelmsford last week, with the pair locked on 20 points but crucially Surrey still have a game in hand – against Sussex Sharks on Wednesday – with the chance to put themselves in the box seat.
Surrey then travel to Kent and Essex host Hampshire, before the two sides face off at the Kia Oval in the final game which may yet be a winner-takes-all contest.
Third-place may be sufficient with one more win if Lancashire lose one of their remaining games, though one of the three North sides below Lancs could still win three games to also finish on 24 points.
Kent Spitfires need to beat both Surrey and Middlesex for an outside chance to finish second, though even with favourable results their inferior NRR is unlikely to be overturned.
Chances of a best third-placed finish are also largely reliant on Essex losing both of their games and Lancashire failing to win twice.
Middlesex and Sussex Sharks are both already out of contention after disappointing campaigns with just two wins each so far.
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