Vitality Blast permutations: Who will join Somerset and Surrey in the last eight?

The group stage of the Vitality Blast reaches its crescendo this week, and the line-up for September’s quarter-final stage will soon be confirmed.

Somerset and Surrey are the only two teams mathematically qualified ahead of the final round of games, with five teams still in the mix for the final two places in the South group.

Meanwhile, just eight points separate top-of-the-table Lancashire Lightning and seventh-placed Notts Outlaws in the North group as the battle to secure a home quarter-final heats up.

So, which teams are still in the hunt for a spot at Edgbaston’s showpiece Finals Day on September 13?

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North Group

Lancashire Lightning are in pole position with eight wins from 12 games after a crucial victory against Durham on Sunday.

With Durham and Northamptonshire Steelbacks still to play each other, Lancashire know one win will be enough to earn a home quarter-final but face two tricky away fixtures at their Roses rivals, Yorkshire and Notts.

After racing out of the gate with six wins on the bounce, Northants stuttered on either side of the County Championship with five consecutive defeats.

But they have wrestled back control with two batting-inspired victories to put them within the brink of qualification for the second year running.

Likewise, Durham are on the verge of consecutive quarter-final appearances with two home games still to play, including a final day showdown with Northants which will likely decide who finishes in second place.

The Bears have struggled to find their usual consistency in the group stage this year but a local derby victory over Worcestershire Rapids last Friday means they are still firm favourites to finish in the top four if they can beat bottom side Derbyshire Falcons.

As for Worcestershire, they need to beat Notts in their final game to maintain any chance and hope for a favour from Derbyshire, though Leicestershire Foxes and Notts both have two games still to play but will likely need to win both due to their inferior net run rate to those above.

Yorkshire and Derbyshire are both out of contention with just four wins but Yorkshire will still be keen to complete a Roses double over Lancashire at Headingley this Thursday.

Decisive Fixtures:

Tue 15th – Durham (3rd) v Leicestershire Foxes (6th)

Thu 17th – Worcestershire Rapids (5th) v Notts Outlaws (7th)

Fri 18th – Derbyshire Falcons (9th) v Bears (4th)

Fri 18th – Durham (3rd) v Northamptonshire Steelbacks (2nd)

South Group

Somerset and Surrey have been dominant forces in the South group and have both already secured home quarter-finals.

The Cider Men have led the way from the start with 10 wins from 13 games but may yet miss out on top spot if Surrey win their final two games and maintain a superior net run rate.

Hampshire Hawks have recovered from a mid-campaign wobble and are all but confirmed to finish in third place due to their impressive net run rate and a meeting with bottom side Essex to come.

Kent Spitfires currently occupy fourth place on 26 points and know a victory at home to Essex will put them in the driving seat for a first knockout appearance since they won the competition in 2021.

Glamorgan, who have not made it out of the group since 2017, are two points behind and will be hoping to capitalise on a Kent slip-up if they can beat Middlesex at Sophia Gardens.

However, Sussex Sharks in sixth position on 22 points still have two games to play and their positive net run rate means that two wins against Gloucestershire and Surrey should see them progress, whilst even one win could be enough to see them leapfrog Kent and Glamorgan should they both lose.

Defending champions Gloucestershire have rallied after a horrendous five-match losing start to remain in contention but must beat Sussex and Somerset – the two sides they defeated on Finals Day last year – to have any hope and rely on favourable results elsewhere.

Perennial T20 strugglers Middlesex have shown more signs of promise this year but have still fallen short of competing for the top four, whilst 2023 runners-up Essex have endured a difficult 2025 campaign so far and had to wait until game number 10 to secure their first of two wins.

Decisive Fixtures:

Thu 17th – Gloucestershire (7th) v Sussex Sharks (6th)

Fri 18th – Glamorgan (5th) v Middlesex (8th)

Fri 18th – Kent Spitfires (4th) v Essex (9th)

Fri 18th – Sussex Sharks (6th) v Surrey (2nd)

By Dom Harris

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