How much of a blow would Pat Cummins’ potential Ashes absence be for Australia?

With still a little over six weeks away until the highly anticipated Ashes gets underway, the series has already had a potentially defining twist with the news that Australia captain Pat Cummins remains a major doubt for the opener in Perth with an ongoing back stress problem that could yet influence his participation entirely.

Cummins, who has been in rehabilitation since the West Indies tour in July, has subsequently been ruled out of the upcoming white ball series against India in a race to regain his fitness after a resurfacing of the struggles which plagued his early international career.

Whilst the Australian camp has played down the local media reports and still expects the 32-year-old to play a major part, a potential absence would represent a significant blow not only to Australia but the series as a whole.

However, it may provide a boost to England’s chances of triumphing Down Under for the first time since 2010-2011.

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Cummins – The bowler

In his primary role, Cummins is one of the premier fast bowlers in the world, becoming only the eighth Australian to reach 300 Test wickets earlier this year during the World Test Championship final against South Africa at Lord’s, having previously been the joint-fifth quickest pace bowler in history to 150 Test wickets (31 matches).

His Ashes record is also a formidable one with 91 career dismissals in 19 matches, including a series-high 21 the last time the Urn was contested in Australia, and he has also claimed the prize scalp of Joe Root on 11 occasions – the joint-most by any bowler along with Jasprit Bumrah.

Whilst Cummins’ likely replacement Scott Boland – who took a remarkable 6-7 on his Test debut against England at the MCG in 2021 – provides solid cover to fill the void with his consistent form over recent years, this only raises wider concerns around the depth of Australia’s bowling stocks moving forward.

Given the longstanding dominance of Australia’s historic bowling quartet, opportunities for others to stake a claim have been limited, whereas England are arriving with a cartel that have all had reasonable exposure to the Test arena, even if they remain largely inexperienced in their own right with fewer caps combined than Mitchell Starc (Ben Stokes aside).

Period of transition

With Starc (35), Josh Hazlewood (34) and Nathan Lyon (37) all entering the twilight of their international careers, Australia will soon be faced with a period of transition to their red-ball bowling attack.

Sean Abbott, 33, was the spare bowler in the Caribbean, but a baggy green has continued to elude the white ball regular, whilst perennial 12th man Michael Neser (35) has slipped down the pecking order since Boland’s arrival on the international stage and has not been able to add to his two appearances since December 2022.

Speedster Lance Morris will be unavailable after opting to undergo back surgery, but the injury-prone Jhye Richardson may come into contention for a return after four years, whilst uncapped duo Brendan Doggett (31) and Fergus O’Neill (24) will likely enter the conversation.

Cummins – The batter

It is not only with the ball where Cummins is a vital component for the Australia side, but also with the bat in hand as a valuable all-rounder.

Whilst an average of 16.82 and three half-centuries in Test cricket may not leap off the page, Cummins has proved no mug with the bat by any means, setting the then joint-fastest IPL fifty (14 balls) in 2022 and more notably scoring a crucial unbeaten 44, which guided Australia over the line in the thrilling first Ashes Test at Edgbaston in 2023.

A switch from Cummins to Boland would significantly weaken the Aussies’ lower order behind wicketkeeper Alex Carey, and with Josh Tongue in particular proving a possible solution to England’s longstanding troubles of removing the tail, Ben Stokes’ side will feel confident that it is an area where they may hold an advantage.

Cummins – The leader

Given the strenuous nature of Test match fast bowling, it has been a rarity for quicks to take on leadership roles, but Cummins has proved to be exceptional in balancing his performances and captaincy.

The talismanic leader has led from the front, playing a starring role in masterminding victories over India in the World Test Championship and ICC World Cup in 2023, as well as an Ashes series all within a two-year period – the only Test captain in history to do so.

Steve Smith will take on the role if Cummins is unavailable which should not prove to be too disruptive given his previous familiarity but it will be the second successive time Australia have been forced into a captaincy switch on the eve of a home Ashes after Tim Paine stepped down in November 2021 and was subsequently replaced by Cummins – Australia went on to win the series 4-0.

England are facing a similar concern of their own around skipper Ben Stokes, who is set to make a full recovery from a shoulder injury sustained against India, though the workload of a gruelling five-match series may yet prove to be a challenge for the all-rounder to come out unscathed, with England’s performances in recent years tending to suffer when Stokes has been missing from the side.

The build-up to the Ashes was expected to be dominated by the composition of Australia’s top order – likely a decision between an in form again Marnus Labuschagne or 20-year-old hotshot Sam Konstas – as well as England’s spin conundrum and the Ollie Pope-Jacob Bethell debate but it is the fitness of both influential captains which may yet provide potentially the most decisive subplot to the outcome of the series.

READ MORE: Australia’s Pat Cummins to miss first Ashes Test and possibly whole series – reports