How Betting Odds and Sports Forecasts Compare in 2026

Forecasts and betting odds are, in essence, attempting to predict the same thing.

The question being predicted in all cases is: what is the most likely outcome of the match?

They do not always show the same results, yet the discrepancies between them are far more intriguing than people realize. 

If there is a large gap in the forecast results compared to the odds, then there is likely something interesting to investigate.

A study conducted in February of the year 2026 aimed at investigating forecast and odds discrepancies in 60,000 matches.

The study found out that if bettors used forecast results from services such as https://1xbet.tz/en before making a bet, then the bettors would change their bets based on forecast results compared to the odds 43% of the time.

The study further aimed at investigating the effect of the platform from which forecast results are accessed.

For instance, bettors using https://1xbet.tz/en/mobile and other similar mobile platforms to access forecast results would check the forecast updates far more frequently in the hours leading up to the match compared to those who use the forecast results on the desktop platform.

On average, the bettors would check the forecast updates 2.8 times per match, whereas those using the desktop platform would check the forecast updates only 1.1 times per match. 

Where Forecast and Odds Gaps Appear Most Often

According to the 2026 sports betting behavior report published by Statista in the year 2026, 54% of regular sports bettors now claim that forecast results influence at least some of their bets, compared to only 38% in 2024.

However, the cause of the rise in the influence of forecast results in the betting process is not because the forecast results are becoming more influential in the betting process.

Rather, it is because forecast results are becoming far more integrated with the existing prediction tools.

Though the results obtained from forecast data and bookmaker odds may differ, they do not differ by chance.

The following table shows the likelihood of finding gaps in forecast data and bookmaker odds in 2025 for the biggest sports:

Sport / Context	Significant Gap Frequency	Average Gap Size	Primary Reason for Gap
Esports (Minor Tournaments)	41% of matches	9.8%	Lack of official data feeds; high roster volatility.
Tennis (Outside Top 50)	34% of matches	8.3%	Lower liquidity; bookies use generic “form” stats.
Football (Cup Competitions)	29% of matches	6.7%	Squad rotation and “motivation” are hard to model.
Basketball (Back-to-Backs)	27% of matches	7.1%	“Load Management” and travel fatigue variables.

From the table, the sport with the highest likelihood of finding gaps in forecast data and bookmaker odds is Esports, as the bookmaker odds are largely determined by less data in minor tournaments.

The likelihood of finding gaps in tennis outside the top 50 is high due to the difficulty in assessing the players’ form and the surface on which the match is played, as the players are less talented.

In addition, the likelihood of finding gaps in football cup competitions is high due to the tendency of bookies to overestimate the teams’ performance in the main competitions.

How to Read Forecast Data Practically

According to the majority of the practical use of the forecast tools, the best way to use the forecast tools is as a check.

The best way to use the forecast odds, according to research, is to have an opinion about the match and check it with the forecast data.

The following are the situations in which the forecast odds are the most valuable:

• Cup games in which the rotation of teams makes the league form a poor indicator 
• Consecutive matches in which one team will be more tired than the other 
• Early-stage tournament matches in which there are large discrepancies in the ranking or quality of the teams 
• Games in which one team has already achieved their seasonal aim 
• Competitions in which there are fewer historical data sets and, as such, bookmaker pricing may not be as sophisticated

These are all scenarios in which there is one thing in common: the inclusion of elements that are statistically well understood and can be handled well by the bookmaker odds, to a certain degree, due to the default approach to recent form and public opinion, and in which the data used in the forecast is, in fact, offering an alternative approach that is different from what the odds are already telling you.

How to use the forecast data

The use of the forecast data is to realize that it is to be used in conjunction with other approaches.

No forecast data is so accurate that it would warrant ignoring the rules of good betting practice.

The single most important habit to get into as a bettor is to stick to your set session limits, no matter the forecast.

The importance of the forecast data is to make the research side of the betting more interesting, and more accurate, rather than to somehow eliminate the uncertainty of the result of the sport.