Ashes First Test preview: Why Perth will decide England’s fate Down Under

By Markus Conneely

“Have England got a chance?” It’s the question penetrating the British zeitgeist, appearing in pubs and being dissected on park walks.

The Ashes resonates with the British public and offers a refreshing source of relevance to a sport often prone to self-deprecation.

However, once the series is gone, so too is the wider public’s attention.

Those who don’t usually follow cricket are currently thirsty for information. The ‘cricket badgers’, ‘cricket nuffies’, and – as Rory McIlroy recently termed them – ‘cricket sickos’ are in particularly high demand.

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AUSTRALIA V ENGLAND: FIRST TEST SCORECARD & MATCH CENTRE

Hopes

But devising a thoughtful Ashes prediction is complex work. Those taking on the challenge must weigh up Australia’s impenetrable home Ashes record alongside their ageing roster of players.

Injuries to Cummins and Hazlewood, which has rendered them unavailable for the first Test, dealt a heavy blow to the hosts.

Conversely, England are specialists in away Ashes failure. That said, they possess the two fastest bowlers in the world and a batting line-up likely suited to sun-baked, fast Australian wickets. It is a mixed, murky picture.

Any apprehension or lack of clarity will only be temporary, though. Five days under the scorching Western Australia sun are sure to burn off brain fog and provide a clear sign of whether England will come out swinging and land their first punches Down Under in a decade and a half.

A first Test defeat would kill their hopes stone dead; in the 21st century, only Vaughan’s 2005 England team have won an Ashes series after losing the opening match.

Underwhelming

Remarkably, England have not won the first Test of an Ashes series in over 10 years.

Underwhelming performances in the opening matches at Edgbaston in 2019 and 2023 cost them, and ought to be well-remembered this week.

England have often wilted as series in Australia wore on, weakened by every trudge to collect a ball from the boundary; Ashes cricket is no place for slow starts and fanciful comebacks.

England have not won in Perth since 1978, but their Ashes hopes cannot survive a loss in the West.

The first ball of this series will, understandably, draw attention, following Burns’ 2021 calamity and Crawley’s emphatic response 18 months later.

However, rather than the first ball, it is more likely to be the first over, session, or slip catch opportunity that sets a lasting tone.

Green monster

Though the smart money is on Australia, there is still a path to victory for England.

If they get the chance to bowl first in the opening match – the coin toss may be Ben Stokes’ most valuable contribution of the week – their bowling attack, likely to be among the fastest they’ve ever fielded in a Test match, will put Australia in on a “green monster,” in the words of The West Australian.

Indeed, 17 wickets fell on day one alone last year, during Australia’s match against India.

If England put Australia in, pressure would mount on the hosts, whose batting lineup appears wearier than normal; Travis Head, for example, has passed 40 just once in his last 20 all-format innings, dating back to June.

Though Australia is perhaps the most radical stronghold of bat first orthodoxy, conditions are changing, and the race to get the Kookaburra in hand is on.

Belief

If England were to win and claim their first Test victory in Australia since January 2011, the confidence and belief that would surge through the playing group would immediately make them favourites.

Every subsequent stride through the crease, punch down the ground and press onto the back foot would be enhanced by the unshakable feeling that they are capable of victory.

Alternatively, a routine win for Australia that picks up where they left off in 2021/22 would be devastating.

This would comprehensively burst the bazbubble, and do extensive damage to a style of play based on self-belief.

To date, every test at Perth Stadium has resulted in an emphatic victory, with 146 runs being the smallest margin.

Including the WACA, the last time the margin of victory was less than 100 runs was back in 2009.

Devastation awaits for someone. Who knows what will happen in the Ashes? After Perth, I suspect we all will.

READ MORE: Ashes First Test preview: Australia v England head to heads, what to expect