The Ashes: The warning signs are there as Australia risk repeat fate from 2010-11

The pre-Ashes jibes are now in full swing as David Warner and Stuart Broad became the latest to stoke the fire, with still over a month until the war of words stop and the action on the field can do the talking.

Earlier this week, former Australia opener Warner took a swipe at the English side by referencing their focus on securing the “moral victory” and duly predicted a 4-0 home win.

His old nemesis Broad swiftly responded with a dig of his own by branding the Australia side as their worst since 2010-11.

The upcoming series is widely considered England’s best chance at emerging victorious Down Under in 15 years, with the 3-1 scoreline in 2010-11 the first English away success since 1986-87.

Remarkably, those three wins all came by an innings margin in a ruthless display.

But England have failed miserably ever since, losing the following three tours by a 13-0 margin, whereas Australia have remained competitive on English soil despite not winning an away series in six attempts themselves.

So why were Australia so resoundingly beaten in the anomaly series of 2010-11?

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Preparation is key

The Australian side of 2010-11 was somewhat in a period of transition after a staggering 74-month stay as the world number one-ranked Test side between 2003-2009.

After a 2-0 defeat in India the month before and a lack of momentum across all formats, Australia then hosted Sri Lanka for a white ball series in the build-up – not out of the ordinary in modern times with both Australia and England involved in limited overs series against India and New Zealand respectively over the coming weeks.

However, contrast that to England in 2010 who already had three longer format Tour matches against Australian opposition under their belt by the time they arrived in Brisbane for the opener.

Whereas much of Australia’s 2010 side lined up against Sri Lanka, this year a number of their key players and those hopeful of forcing their way into the side are benefitting from competitive domestic Sheffield Shield action, none more so than Marnus Labuschagne, who has sent a reminder to the selectors with four centuries in five innings.

Fitness concerns

Meanwhile, it is England who face arriving undercooked in red ball action with one just one warm-up match against the Lions side scheduled ahead of the first Test.

Australia also revealed an initial 17-man squad for the first Test alone in 2010, whilst England named 16 for the entire series, highlighting a lack of clarity around the makeup of the team with only three players surviving who played an active role during the 5-0 Ashes rout in 2006-07.

There were also fitness concerns at the time around key players such as Michael Clarke and Simon Katich, with current captain Pat Cummins’ injury doubt dominating the headlines this time around, whereas England are all set to arrive with a clean bill of health – how long that remains is another matter.

Selection headaches

A strength of Australia over the years has been their consistency in personnel, though for the 2025-26 Ashes there are a number of question marks regarding the composition of their top order, who will be the primary all-rounder and where is the bowling depth should Pat Cummins or any of the ageing attack need replacing.

Whilst there are still a few decisions to be made with England, there is a strong sense the tourists are arriving as the more settled side which was also the case 15 years ago.

The late Phil Hughes and a then burgeoning all-rounder Steve Smith were drafted into the Australia team during the series in the early stages of their international career and naturally had their flaws exposed, whilst Usman Khawaja also made his debut at Sydney in the fifth Test.

The pace-bowling department was also muddled. Mitchell Johnson’s inconsistent form saw him replaced by an unfit Doug Bollinger for the second Test who struggled and subsequently never played for the Australia Test side again – joining Simon Katich and Marcus North in never wearing the Baggy Green post-2010/11 Ashes.

Longevity

Peter Siddle’s series peaked on the opening day with a hat trick, Ben Hilfenhaus was unable to replicate his performances from the 2009 series in England and an impressive Ryan Harris suffered an ankle injury during the Boxing Day Test.

Before Nathan Lyon arrived on the scene as the long-term successor to the great Shane Warne, Australia had issues not too dissimilar to England today in terms of their frontline spinner.

Nathan Hauritz had been involved in the setup for a couple of years but was axed for Xavier Doherty in an attempt to exploit England’s weakness to left-arm spin, though three wickets at an average above 100 in his first two Tests saw him replaced by another rookie in Michael Beer who was unused until the fifth Test.

Australia have been blessed with the longevity of a number of their key players, particularly the bowling quartet of the past decade that has over 1,500 Test wickets between them, but once again with cracks appearing in the side there are doubts lingering around who is next in line and a potential need to call up a player with minimal Test experience.

The disruption to the Australian side in 2010-11 was in stark contrast to three years down the line, where they were able to name an unchanged XI for all five Test matches on their way to regaining the urn in style, with Mitchell Johnson’s renaissance inspiring a dominant 5-0 win.

Batting difficulties

The bowlers were left under immense pressure given the struggles the batters faced in churning out consistent runs against an impressive all-round England attack.

Ricky Ponting was nearing the end of his career and averaged just 16.14 across the series – the lowest average by an Australian captain in an Ashes since 1965-66.

Michael Clarke equally found it challenging to make a meaningful contribution with an average of just 21.44, whereas England’s Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook led from the front for a side that piled on 500 runs on four different occasions.

The Australian batters looked particularly susceptible outside their off stump with all 10 dismissals in their score of 98 on the first day of the Boxing Day Test falling behind the wicket.

That top order fragility is apparent today, with just one half-century across the top three during their most recent Test series against West Indies. 

Will Sam Konstas be backed? Will Marnus Labuschange’s domestic form earn him a recall? And will Cameron Green continue to bat at three? Could there be a wildcard selection? 

Not ideal to have such uncertainty at this stage.

Similarities

Michael Hussey and wicketkeeper Brad Haddin – the only Australian centurions from 2010-11 – did provide some resistance in that series.

And there are some similarities to be made today with Travis Head and Alex Carey who are often relied upon to produce a significant volume of runs in the middle order, alongside Steve Smith whose form with the bat could heavily dictate the outcome of the series in a manner Ponting’s did 15 years ago.

When comparing the Test averages from Australia’s top seven ahead of the 2010-11 series to the anticipated top seven this time around, only Steve Smith comes out on top of the current crop, with Konstas as opener and Green at number three the notable differentials.

Are England the best they have been since?

Stuart Broad also claimed England are arriving with their best team since 2010 which can be difficult to dispute, though ultimately the proof will be in the pudding.

England’s Ashes victory in 2010-11 was on their way to becoming the world number one team in August later that year, a well-oiled unit with a strong batting lineup and effective bowling attack all performing to a consistently high standard.

That began to unravel on their next Ashes tour when Graeme Swann announced his immediate retirement after the third Test, whilst Jonathan Trott returned home with off-field struggles and Matthew Prior found himself out of the side due to poor form.

In the previous two series Down Under, England’s batting has proved far too fragile, the bowling has lacked a fear factor and consistent threat – Mark Wood’s spell in Hobart 2022 aside – with an overriding perplexity to their plans in the field.

Even for the pessimists out there, or realists, there is reason for optimism that this England side are in as good a position since 2010 to win in Australia, or at the very least anticipate a much more competitive series.

Bazball philosophy

Ben Stokes’ leadership has proven inspired for much of his tenure, there is a confident batting unit with few scars from past Ashes tours and more than capable of making big runs throughout, whilst the pace attack is high-octane and can stifle the Australian batters in a manner which England have often been on the receiving end.

That being said, the task at hand remains a significant one. Australia have won five of their last six home series – including a 3-1 victory over India this time last year who England failed to beat at home in the summer.

Will the Bazball philosophy come unstuck on big Australian grounds? With no series victories against Australia or India since 2018, can England prove they are capable of beating the best?

Regardless of whether England holds a slender advantage or not ahead of the Perth opener on November 21 though, it can be very dangerous to underestimate an Australian side in any circumstances, particularly ahead of a home Ashes series where they historically tend to rise to the occasion.

READ MORE: How much of a blow would Pat Cummins’ potential Ashes absence be for Australia?